2011 Housing Update

2010 has come and gone and the housing situation is no better at the start of 2011 than it was at the start of 2010 and could very well be worse.

Personally I am persuaded that the housing market as a whole is still not at the bottom and it could be a while before it does hit bottom and when it does it could flat line for a number of years before prices really and truly start trending up.

Foreclosures are still high and climbing in many areas. Unemployment is still high and will likely stay high for quite a while. And bankruptcies are very high as well. So I think it will be years before all of this gets fleshed out.

Check out some of these headlines and articles:

Economists: Expect No Home-Price Growth in 2011

Home price plunge is widespread

U.S. Property Values Decline More Than Forecast in S&P/Case Shiller Index

Double-Dip In Housing Almost Here, According To Case-Shiller Index

Housing Double-Dip Ahead: Economist

Roubini: 'Housing Prices Can Only Move Down'

Analysts expect further 10% fall in US property prices

My council to most people is still to wait another couple of years before you buy. And when you buy you should only pay cash or do a lease-to-own purchase agreement. If you do have the cash to buy now, and you really need a new home, then look hard for the good deals. There's no doubt you can buy a home now and get a good deal, but you must know what you are doing and know what a good deal is and what a bad deal is as well. Else you will lose your money.

What to look for if you want to buy a home now:

Foreclosed or distressed property. A distressed property could be in the foreclosure process, but not foreclosed upon. It could be a short-sale, and of course it could be a bank-owned property. Banks are letting some properties go for very reasonable prices. Remember to corrupt bankers love to take your home and gain a tangible asset, but they don't want to hold onto it.
A home that needs some work. I wouldn't advise a major overhaul for most people. But finding something that needs new paint in and out, new flooring, new landscaping, some minor kitchen and bath remodels are perfect.
A home that has some land with it, especially over 10 acres. Banks know that homes with multiple acreage (especially over 10 acres) have a very small pool of potential buyers and will let these properties go for well below market value. And by that I mean 50% below.
A home within 45 minutes of civilization. I prefer properties somewhat away from the populace, but still within 45 minutes of important amenities like a hospital, WalMart and a home center like Lowes or Home Depot.

And What About The Baby Boomers Retiring...Will They Bust The Economy?

Another important factor to remember or consider when it comes to the housing market and the economy as well is that January 1st 2011 marked the beginning of the Baby Boomer Retirement Era, perhaps we should call this era the Elderly Boomer Generation...the boom in babies from 1946-1964 is now turning into a boom in the elderly and perhaps a bust in the economy.

This large mass of people turning 65 are now going to start sucking money from the system big time. Social Security pay outs will be going up and up for years. There's already no money in Social Security, what are they going to do? MediCare will also suck mega dollars out of the system. As people get older, they tend to break down and breaking down costs lots of money. The baby boomers will also start living off of their retirement accounts and that will deplete investments. And what will these baby boomers do for their housing needs? Here are some possibilities:

Stay put...that means that won't be buying another house somewhere
Scaling down into a more affordable home.
Moving in with their kids
Their kids moving in with them
Moving into retirement communities...that is for the few. Most baby boomers will not be able to afford retirement communities, independent and assisted living facilities.
Move to a trailer park where it is warm
Move to a vacation destination

As it has in the past, demographics will be the key player to the housing market over the next 20 years. Time will tell, so stay tuned.

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