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Robert Schiller Says "House Prices Could Fall Much Further"

publication date: Feb 1, 2011
 | 
author/source: Chris Prang
Robert Schiller from the Case-Schilling index believes that housing prices could fall much further.

Let me say first of all, I believe he is right. But for someone who is a professor he should have a lot more common sense and an ability to reason.

He thinks a double-dip is possible. He thinks the economy has recovered. Let me explain exactly what a double-dip really is. Not what Mr. Schiller or any so-called financial expert says it is, but what common sense says it is. Here it is...

You can only have a double dip in housing prices when housing prices return to where their peak levels use to be in 2006 and then fall again. Until they return to their peaks, we are still in the first dip, not the second dip.

The economy has not recovered. And we are still declining and never returned to where we were before. When housing prices return to their peaks from 2006 and then go back down...then and only then will we have a double-dip. How does something take a second dip when it hasn't even come close to getting back to the surface?

The same holds true of the stock market. The stock market peaked in January of 2000 at 11,722.98. That is now over 11 years ago. The stock market went way down after that and then ending up going up to
14,164.53 in October of 2007. Right now as I type the stock market is at 12,030.51. Perhaps the stock market had a double-dip, but if you add in inflation since 2000 at a rate of 3% per year, then the stock market should be at 15,754.63. And that is just to break even. So you see, even the stock market has not recovered, it is still below the water line.

By the way, you can read and here what Mr. Schiller said here.


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