I came across an article entitled "Widespread Fear Freezes Housing Market" and wondered if there really is "Widespread Fear." To add some fuel to the fire, I also saw this article: "Why Housing Is Even Worse Than You Think."
The article states:
"...we are now living through the opposite kind of perfect storm.
Essentially, every participant in the housing market has a reason to be
afraid. And that fear is paralyzing.
"Mr. Barnes describes the shadow inventory as akin to “ranks of
Napoleonic infantry, rows deep, hidden in the fog.” This inventory,
estimated by Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac to be between three million and
four million homes, is almost certain to drag down home prices for the
foreseeable future. “The disinterest of buyers, in an interest-rate
environment that may be the lowest ever, is striking,” Mr. Barnes said."
This issue has to be dealt with...
"It’s even become nearly impossible for well-heeled investors to buy
rental properties. This is no small matter. At the peak of the bubble,
the rate of home-ownership approached 70 percent. Now it is falling
toward 65 percent — which is more or less where it was before all the
housing madness of the last decade. That means that millions of
Americans who were briefly homeowners need to become renters again. They
need a place to rent.
But somebody has to buy the homes they are leaving behind and turn them
into rental properties. The most likely buyer is a professional investor
who purchases rental properties for a living. Yet, absurdly, government
rules have made it exceedingly difficult to make loans to investors who
want to buy up rental properties. This only adds to the shadow
inventory"
The issue of investors not being able to purchase homes is a big one. There are many well qualified and experienced investors that have the means and ability purchase homes that can become rental properties, but because of lending guidelines, can't. This is ridiculous! You see the individual investor (even if it is set up as a LLC or Corporation) can only have so many outstanding loans. Meanwhile, the big boy banks and large corporations that invest in mega-million dollar properties can get just about all the loans they want.
So if the banks and the government are not going to allow small investors to obtain mortgages on properties, then the banks (and possibly the government) will have to become landlords and property managers for millions of residential properties. And that surely will not be good!
Getting back to my thought, is there widespread fear among homeowners and buyers? While there are plenty of reasons for widespread fear, I do not believe that there is. The reasons why I don't are as follows:
- The majority of homeowners are not underwater...at least not yet. According to statistics about 70%+ of homeowners have equity in their home.
- The majority of homeowners are willing to ride the storm out. Yes it could take a long while...years and years, but for now, they are willing to hang in there. Unfortunately, like those that remain when a strong hurricane is coming, some will perish financially by not selling when they should have. As for where we are on Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale when it comes to the housing market, I would say a Category 3: "Devastating Damage Will Occur." And yes I see the potential of moving to a Category 4 Hurricane where there will be "Catastrophic Damage." And perhaps some areas have already suffered this.
- The majority of homeowners are employed and have the means to pay their mortgage. While unemployment could rise and remain high for quite a while, right now it is not affecting the masses when it comes to fear in the housing market.
- If there was widespread fear right now, then the majority of homeowners would have their homes for sale, but they don't. According to the census there are roughly 129 million housing units in the U.S. Right now there are only about 4 million +/- for sale. That means that less than 4% of the homes in the U.S. right now are for sale. Of course this does not take into account all the shadow inventory; if it did, it would likely come in around 10% or less.
When there is a stock crisis, the masses start selling. When people are afraid that a bank is going to collapse, they stand in line for hours to get their money out. We have not seen those signs in the housing market...YET.
This article is from Chris Prang from the Christian Economic Report.