Updated throughout the week, this section provides links to articles and reports pertaining to the real estate crash with some additional comments from time to time.
The point of this section is for you to be informed about what is really going on in the housing market. Always, always, always get the facts about the housing market in your area:
Homes currently on the market Average length of time on the market Number of homes to go off the market Number of homes to come back on the market Number or percentage of Bank Owned/REO's available for sale in your market: For every foreclosure listed for sale, expect 2-5 times more not currently listed. Number of homes in default and pending foreclosure Average price of comparable homes that were resales Average price of comparable homes that were Bank Owned/REO's Also good to get the average price of next level up homes that were Bank Owned/REO. You very well could find that they are going for the same price as smaller homes. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: March 15th, 2010
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: February 5th, 2010
Here are the trending headlines when it comes to real
estate:
Negative Equity
Walking Away
Vacant Homes
All of these (not
just the headlines) are increasing. Can that possibly be good for the
housing market?
Well that depends on whether you currently own, are in the buying process or are renting/living at home.
If you currently own a home, depending on where you live, the likelihood is your property values will continue to decline.
If
you are in the buying process, you better be buying for 25% less than
current market value...otherwise STOP the buying process.
I do believe that there are some justifiable reasons/needs for buying right now. Here are a few:
You
want to start homesteading or farming. Doing so will allow you to
provide food for your family and produce food to sell, thereby helping
you create wealth.
You have a unique
family situation (elderly parent living with you, special needs child,
many children, etc.) and you need a home that will suit your family
needs and there's nothing at all to rent or will allow you to modify a
home to suit your needs.
You have your
own business that requires more space than a typical home office and
instead of leasing or buying commercial rental space, you want to buy a
home or property that will allow you operate your business from home.
"Like a carnival free-fall ride that stops suddenly, teasing riders into a false sense of safety before plummeting the rest
of the way to the ground, some economists say the housing market could once again be headed for a plunge after slowly clawing
back some of its 2008 losses.
A trio of gathering government storm clouds will be responsible for the drop that some predict could mean another 10% to
15% slump in prices, they say."
More Homeowners Choose To Walk Away
Walking Away From Mortgages
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: January 26th, 2010
This issue has articles about "Walking Away" and the dramatic decline in home sales in December.
"Home sales plunged more than expected in December, raising fresh
questions about whether the housing market can function without ample
government assistance."
"Sales of previously occupied homes took the largest monthly drop in
more than 40 years last month, sinking more dramatically than expected
after lawmakers gave buyers additional time to use a tax credit."
In regards the decline in
home sales, that should be expected. Even though I think housing is
still in the tank, I am not convinced the decline provides more
evidence for that fact. After all:
December is typically the slowest month of the year for housing sales
The stimulus got extended giving buyers more time to think about it
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: January 23rd, 2010
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: January 21st, 2010
Record Year For Foreclosures As Unemployment Rises "A
record 2.8 million households were threatened with foreclosure last
year, and that number is expected to rise this year as more unemployed
and cash-strapped homeowners fall behind on their mortgages."
"A record one in seven U.S.
mortgages were in foreclosure or at least one payment past due
in the third quarter, according to fresh data signaling the
recovery in the housing market will be tepid at best."
"A record 3 million U.S. homes will be repossessed by lenders this year
as high unemployment and depressed home values leave borrowers unable
to make their house payment or sell, according to a RealtyTrac Inc.
forecast."
"Defaults among prime borrowers are likely to accelerate, adding to a
“huge” inventory of properties that banks possess and haven’t yet put
on the market, according to Robert Shiller and Karl Case, who created
the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. In September, Goodman
estimated that 7 million homes were already in foreclosure or likely to
be seized.
The housing market is weighed down by a “a massive supply of
delinquent loans” that will end up in foreclosure this year, James
Saccacio, RealtyTrac’s chief executive officer, said in a statement
Friday."
"According to data released by the Treasury Department Friday, more than
900,000 borrowers have begun trial modifications under the program, but
just 7% of them have received permanent changes so far."
"Rising delinquencies, strategic defaults, POAs hitting the fan; that’s
a lot of headwind to sail against. It’s fair to say that the word
recovery shouldn’t be bandied about when talking about the housing
sector of the economy."
"Laurie Goodman of Amherst Securities who collected all the current
mortgage delinquency data and determined that a total of 7 million
homes are likely to default over the next year or so."
"The probability of a borrower recovering after missing one payment (25
percent) or two payments (5 percent) is shockingly low, at least when
you look back a few years."
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: January 15th, 2010
“A massive supply of delinquent loans
continues to loom over the housing market, and many of those
delinquencies will end up in the foreclosure process in 2010 and beyond
as lenders gradually work their way through the backlog,” says
RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio.